The market is in a mixed flow and pre-break volatility regime, with price down 2.28% to $69,529 and the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 14 (Extreme Fear), indicating increased selling pressure but no clear directional trend. Weekly trends show the Fear Index declined from 17 to 14, reflecting deteriorating sentiment; news-wise, the Hyperunit whale moving 5,000 BTC to Binance (~$351M) intensified de-risking pressure, while Binance's purchase of 3,600 BTC for its SAFU fund provided some support. The core contradiction lies in: despite the Fear Index at Extreme Fear levels (P0), typically suggesting oversold bounce potential, funding rate remains negative at -0.0043% (P8.3), indicating short positions are not overly crowded, while CVD trend is rising and taker buy ratio edged up to 50.69% shows spot buying exists, yet price decline contradicts with basis widening to -0.0476%, implying derivatives bearishness outweighs spot flow. Volatility structure shows IV Index at 56.44, below HV 30D of 58.1, with IV premium at -1.66%, indicating options market underpricing realized risk; PCR OI is 0.78, little changed weekly, but futures term structure is flat with slope 0.0005, reflecting lack of directional expectations. Weekly IV rose from 0 to 56.44, volatility returning but pricing remains conservative. Key risk factors: 1. Monitor if CVD trend shifts from rising to falling, as a break below zero could exacerbate selling pressure; 2. Watch for further negative expansion in funding rate, with levels below -0.01% potentially triggering short squeezes; 3. Note spillover effects from commodity selloffs (e.g., silver), which may catalyze Bitcoin volatility. Yesterday's signal score +3 missed predictions, today's score holds at +3, trend direction neutral-cautious.