CoinSig — 2026-02-13 Crypto Market Report

The market is in a cautiously optimistic rebound state, but sentiment indicators show a significant divergence from price action. Bitcoin price rose 2.30% today to $68,652, with the weekly trend improving slightly from last week's extreme fear (index 6) to 9, yet still in extreme fear territory, contradicting the price rebound. The flow regime is mixed, with a taker buy ratio of 49.21% and order flow imbalance (OFI) biased sell, but cumulative volume delta (CVD) is rising, indicating accumulating buy-side pressure. In important news events, BitMine's continued massive Ethereum accumulation (adding 140,400 ETH today) aligns with bullish on-chain supply squeeze signals, potentially supporting ETH's strong performance (up 4.43% today). The core contradiction lies in the disconnect between market sentiment and price action: the Fear & Greed Index is 9 (extreme fear), up 4 points from yesterday, but the weekly trend only improved by 3 points, far below last month's 61, showing persistent investor panic while Bitcoin price rebounds near the $69,000 resistance. This divergence typically suggests a fragile rebound; if sentiment fails to improve in sync, prices are prone to pullbacks. Additionally, Ethereum's institutional accumulation news (BitMine's additions) aligns with bullish signals, but overall market flow is mixed, adding uncertainty. In volatility and structure, the volatility regime is normal, with the implied volatility (IV) index at 52.96, down 1.51 from yesterday, but the IV-HV spread is 6.17 and IV premium is 13.19%, with a weekly trend showing volatility percentile at 79.1 (high), indicating options market still prices in some risk. Positioning risk is balanced, with funding rate at -0.0012% (30-day percentile P10.4), at historically low levels, showing short positioning dominance; futures term structure is flat with a slope of 0.0002, suggesting lack of directional expectations. The put/call ratio (PCR) is 0.7831, down slightly by 0.0011 from yesterday, indicating reduced put demand, but net Delta is -9,860, still bearish-biased. Key levels and actionable thresholds: Current price is $68,652, with resistance at $69,000 (round number) and $69,290 (24-hour high); a break above requires volume exceeding $14B (today's $14.08B, up 21.48% day-over-day) to confirm bullish momentum. Support lies at $68,000 (round number); if broken, it could test $65,093 (24-hour low), and further breakdown below $60,000 (max pain) may trigger cascading liquidations, as 24-hour liquidation total surged 178.78% to $38.5M (long $9.00M, short $29.50M). Open interest decreased slightly by 0.5% to $3.21B, showing limited leveraged interest. What to watch in the next 24 hours: First, if Bitcoin breaks above $69,290 with amplified volume, it may attract more buying, pushing toward the $70,000 zone; conversely, if it falls below $68,000 support, watch for a fast move down to below $65,000 as leveraged longs get liquidated (long liquidation ratio 23%). Second, monitor if the Fear & Greed Index rebounds to neutral territory (e.g., above 20); if extreme fear persists, the rally may struggle to sustain. Yesterday's signal accuracy was 3/3, but the predicted score rose from 0 to 3 with actual price up 2.30%, indicating signal lag; today's confidence is 0.5, so remain cautious.