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CoinSig — 2026-02-15 Crypto Market Report

Predictions2026-02-15
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Neutral
$69,068 0.98%
L $68,741 — H $70,939
ETH$2,010-3.65%·BTC Dom. 56.37%
0/ ±2-3
Neutral
Fear & Greed
8Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$9.3B+2.54%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
AIThe market is in a ranging state with a signal score of +0/2 indicating low confidence, flow regime mixed, price slightly down 0.98% around $69,068, Fear & Greed Index at 8 (Extreme Fear), weekly trend up but signals flat.
ARCHIVEDData period 2026-02-15 00:00–24:00 UTC·Generated at 2/15/2026, 6:30:02 PM (local time)
Daily Market Structure Report
The market is in a ranging state with a signal score of +0/2 indicating low confidence, flow regime mixed, price slightly down 0.98% around $69,068, Fear & Greed Index at 8 (Extreme Fear), weekly trend up but signals flat. News of rising institutional demand for Ethereum and on-exchange supply hitting a 10-year low aligns with the current bullish Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) and rising Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) trend, suggesting underlying buying support. The core contradiction lies between extreme macro fear and micro order flow buy signals: Fear & Greed Index at 8 (Extreme Fear), down 6 points weekly, but OFI bias is buy (value 2.2987), Taker Buy Ratio up to 51.52%, and CVD trend rising, indicating that despite pessimistic sentiment, large traders are actively buying, potentially signaling an overreaction or bottom formation. Volatility structure is normal, with IV Index down from 51.13 to 49.4, weekly trend down, but IV-HV spread at 1.95 and IV premium 4.11% at 78.0 percentile, showing options pricing remains elevated. Positioning risk is balanced, with Funding Rate percentile P20.8, liquidation ratio 51% long, and futures term structure flat, indicating no extreme leverage pressure. Key levels: support at $68,741 (24h low) and $67,107 (week low), resistance at $69,754 (week high), $70,000 (round number), and $70,938 (24h high). A break above $69,754 with volume exceeding the weekly average of $11.6B could confirm bullish momentum; conversely, failure to hold $68,741 support may trigger cascading liquidations. Watch in the next 24 hours: If BTC drops below $68,741 on heavy volume, expect a fast move down as leveraged longs get liquidated; if ETH price rebounds above $2,010 with increased volume, it may validate the bullish signal from institutional accumulation; if IV further declines below 48, the options market could indicate reduced volatility, lowering hedging demand.
Important News Events
Bitcoin holders reassess value proposition as inflation eases2/14/2026

Bitcoin holders are rethinking their role as inflation cools.

Ether’s hidden strength: Why institutional demand points to $2.4K2/12/2026

While ETH’s price action remains weak, rising institutional investor inflows and surging network activity suggest that Ether is building a base for a possible rally to $2,400.

Ethereum Plans Zero-Knowledge Block Validation Upgrade in 20262/10/2026

Ethereum (ETH) is quietly preparing for one of its most consequential architectural changes yet, one that could redefine how blocks are validated at the protocol level. com.

Bitmine Continues Accumulating Ethereum as Holdings Expand2/10/2026

Ethereum (ETH) just saw one of its largest single-day institutional buys in weeks, and it didn’t come from an exchange-traded fund (ETF) headline or a hype cycle. On-chain data shows Tom Lee’s Bitmine acquired 40,000 ETH worth roughly $83. 4 million within hours, split across two separate purchases

Ethereum on-exchange supply falls to a 10-year low2/9/2026

While the steadily declining prices have stolen virtually all headlines over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) on-exchange supply has also fallen back to levels not seen since mid-2016. Specifically, the total Ethereum supply on cryptocurrency exchanges sat at 16 million ETH on February 9, according to data available on CryptoQuant, while the asset itself was trading at around $2,000, down 34% on the monthly chart. Ethereum price and exchange supply. Source: CryptoQuant The drawdown has unfolded gradually rather than through a sharp drop, pointing to a sustained change in how holders are positioning their assets

$340M in Bitcoin Hits Binance as the Hyperunit Whale De-Risks Hard2/8/2026

A large Bitcoin holder that on-chain analysts often label the “Hyperunit whale” moved about 5,000 BTC to Binance in a short window. That transfer equated to roughly $351 million at the time of reporting, and it likely signaled intent to sell. However, you should separate what we can prove from what people assume

BTC miner IREN opens in the green, riding AI momentum to MSCI inclusion2/13/2026

IREN has announced that it will be added to the MSCI USA Index, a major benchmark that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap US stocks, by the end of February. The inclusion is expected to boost IREN’s visibility among institutional investors and index-tracking funds, which may support the company’s long-term price and capital-raising plans. […]

US federal judge sentences Praetorian’s CEO to 20 years over massive $200 million Bitcoin fraud2/13/2026

Ramil Ventura Palafox just got 20 years in federal prison. He ran a fake crypto company called Praetorian and scammed over 90,000 people across the world. A judge in Alexandria, Virginia, sentenced him after he got hit with wire fraud and money laundering charges. Ramil is 61 and holds passports from both the United States […]

Solo Miner Lands $213K Bitcoin Block2/13/2026

A solo Bitcoin (BTC) miner has mined block #936100, earning 3. 153 BTC (worth roughly $213K) in a rare jackpot moment. The block included the standard 3. 125 BTC subsidy plus around 0

Ethereum Whales Are Not Dead: The $400 Million Move That Shows What’s Going On2/12/2026

Ethereum whales have continued to accumulate despite the current downtrend in the ETH price, providing a bullish outlook for the second-largest crypto by market cap. Notably, ETH withdrawals from exchanges recently reached their highest level since October last year, totaling over $400 million. Ethereum Whales Accelerate Withdrawals From Exchanges Crypto analyst Arab Chain noted in a CryptoQuant analysis that rising Ethereum withdrawals from exchanges have reached their highest level since October. The analyst noted that the exchange netflow data over the past few days indicates a clear acceleration in withdrawal activity

Signal Summary
RangingConfidence: 25%
Low confidence — insufficient active signals
Bullish 2Neutral 12Bearish 0
Funding Rate: P20.8L/S Ratio: 1.7233Liq. Ratio: 51% Long liq.CVD Trend: RisingLarge Trades: 47% sell sideIV Premium: 4.11%Taker Buy Ratio: 51.52%OI Change: -1.33%PCR: 0.7687CVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: 5.9%HV Divergence: 7%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
Bullish
Fear & Greed
8×1
Price Momentum
Up×1
AI vs Rules
AI
Neutral
Confidence: low
Rules Prediction
Neutral
Score: 0/2
AI and Rules agree
Extreme fear sentiment and bullish price momentum signals conflict, but the overall trend is ranging with low signal score, indicating unclear direction.
Yesterday Review
✗ ❌ Missed-0.98%
2026-02-14·Predicted: Bullish (+3)Ranging
20%Accuracy
Multiple signal misses — possible market regime shift
Funding Rate L/S Ratio Liq. Ratio Fear & Greed ATM Book Imbalance
Last 2 Days1W 0L (1 skipped)
02-12
02-13
AIBullish❌ Missed
Key Price Levels
BTC
Week High
$69,754+1.0%
Round Number
$70,000+1.3%
24h High
$70,938+2.7%
Current Price
$69,068
24h Low
$68,741-0.5%
Week Low
$67,107-2.8%
ETH
Current Price
$2,010
Round Number
$2,000-0.5%
Volume must exceed $11.6B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Market in extreme fear zone — historically a contrarian opportunity window
Signal score plunged sharply — sentiment deteriorating fast
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 52.5% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureNormalIV-HV: +4.11% · P78
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P20.8 · Long Liq %: 51%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 8 · FR P20.8
Who Dominates?Evenly MatchedBullish 2 : 0 Bearish · L/S 1.72
Capital Flowing In or Out?Net InflowCVD Rising · Taker 52%
Volatility Risk?Elevated VolIV 49.4 · HV 47.45 · P78
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?-0.0024%+0.0007%
Rate Percentile20.8%
Basis?-0.0573%-0.0152%
Open Interest?3.15B
OI Change-1.33%
Long/Short Ratio?1.72+0.013
Top Trader Long %55.28%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation6.54M
Short Liquidation6.29M
Long 51%Short 49%
Large Buy7,854 trades / 2.21B
Large Sell7,664 trades / 2.00B
Options
IV Index?49.4%-1.73%
IV Range48.26% - 51.18%
HV 30D?47.45%
IV Premium4.11%
Put/Call Ratio?0.77+0.001
Max Pain?$72,000
PCR (Volume)0.49
Options OI419.78K
Net Delta6.63
IV Skew6.3300
Vol Regimenormal (P78)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H50.86%4H50.85%24H50.85%7D53.24%30D47.45%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Rising
CVD Value495.21
CVD 4H-4,318.04
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Buy Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?51.5%+0.5%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy57.3K
Large Taker Sell53.4K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth
-0.4%
10 Depth
-0.3%
20 Depth
-0.1%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl8.4
10 Lvl9.4
20 Lvl11.1
Orderbook Spread0.0001%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.000%
Max0.005%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield1.8%
US 2Y Yield3.47%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.67%
DXY118.2
VIX20.8
HY Spread2.92%
Net Liquidity5.71T
Net Liquidity Chg+0.04%
S&P 5006,836.17
M2 Supply$22692.2B

Updated at 16/02/2026, 00:10:15 UTC

On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1398.5B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.521,603
Hash Rate (EH/s)945 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)+5128.12 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.032 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0299

Updated at 15/02/2026, 08:10:43 UTC

7-Day Trend (3 days)
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Funding Trend
OI Trend
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.