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CoinSig — 2026-02-16 Crypto Market Report

Predictions2026-02-16
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Neutral
$68,863 0.10%
L $67,250 — H $70,111
ETH$1,997+1.62%·BTC Dom. 56.51%
0/ ±4
Neutral
Fear & Greed
12Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$10.1B+7.80%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
AIThe market is in a ranging consolidation under extreme fear and high volatility, with a signal score of +0/4 (confidence 38%) indicating balanced forces and a weekly trend of flat.
ARCHIVEDData period 2026-02-16 00:00–24:00 UTC·Generated at 2/17/2026, 12:30:03 AM (local time)
Daily Market Structure Report
The market is in a ranging consolidation under extreme fear and high volatility, with a signal score of +0/4 (confidence 38%) indicating balanced forces and a weekly trend of flat. The flow regime is mixed, with a taker buy ratio of 50.23% conflicting with an order flow imbalance (OFI) bias to sell, but a rising cumulative volume delta (CVD) suggests underlying buying support. News-wise, Bitcoin holders reassessing value as inflation eases aligns with the extreme fear sentiment, while Ethereum's on-exchange supply falling to a 10-year low may provide a floor for prices. The core contradiction lies in the divergence between derivatives data and spot sentiment: the funding rate percentile at 93.8% signals overheated leveraged longs (bearish), but the long/short ratio rose from 1.72 to 2.03 (bullish), and open interest only dipped 0.9%, indicating professional traders are adding long positions despite the fear and greed index at 12 (extreme fear), suggesting a potential directional breakout. Volatility is extreme high, with the IV index up from 49.4 to 51.76 and an IV-HV spread of 3.84, trending down weekly but remaining elevated. The put/call ratio (PCR) decreased from 0.77 to 0.74, reducing put demand, but max pain at $66,000 below current price offers a downside buffer. Futures term structure is flat, and funding rate dropped 0.0024% to 0.0059%, showing manageable leverage risk amid high volatility. Key levels: support at $68,000 (round number), $67,250 (24h low), $66,000 (max pain); resistance at $69,000 (round number), $69,754 (week high), $70,111 (24h high). A break above $69,000 with volume exceeding the weekly average of $11.0B could confirm bullish momentum; failure to hold $67,250 support may trigger cascading liquidations from $10.67M in long positions. Watch next 24 hours: 1. If BTC drops below $67,250 on heavy volume, expect a fast move down as leveraged longs get liquidated; 2. If ETH breaks above $2,000 with increased on-chain activity, it may test $2,400 resistance; 3. Yesterday's signal missed (hit rate 0/2), so treat current low-confidence signals with caution.
Important News Events
Bitcoin holders reassess value proposition as inflation eases2/14/2026

Bitcoin holders are rethinking their role as inflation cools.

Ether’s hidden strength: Why institutional demand points to $2.4K2/12/2026

While ETH’s price action remains weak, rising institutional investor inflows and surging network activity suggest that Ether is building a base for a possible rally to $2,400.

Ethereum Plans Zero-Knowledge Block Validation Upgrade in 20262/10/2026

Ethereum (ETH) is quietly preparing for one of its most consequential architectural changes yet, one that could redefine how blocks are validated at the protocol level. com.

Bitmine Continues Accumulating Ethereum as Holdings Expand2/10/2026

Ethereum (ETH) just saw one of its largest single-day institutional buys in weeks, and it didn’t come from an exchange-traded fund (ETF) headline or a hype cycle. On-chain data shows Tom Lee’s Bitmine acquired 40,000 ETH worth roughly $83. 4 million within hours, split across two separate purchases

Ethereum on-exchange supply falls to a 10-year low2/9/2026

While the steadily declining prices have stolen virtually all headlines over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) on-exchange supply has also fallen back to levels not seen since mid-2016. Specifically, the total Ethereum supply on cryptocurrency exchanges sat at 16 million ETH on February 9, according to data available on CryptoQuant, while the asset itself was trading at around $2,000, down 34% on the monthly chart. Ethereum price and exchange supply. Source: CryptoQuant The drawdown has unfolded gradually rather than through a sharp drop, pointing to a sustained change in how holders are positioning their assets

$2.3 Billion Vanished in Bitcoin Losses. History Says This Moment Matters2/15/2026

Bitcoin just absorbed $2. 3 billion in realized losses, placing the current selloff among the most severe capitulation events on record. According to on-chain data shared by CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech, the magnitude rivals the stress seen during the 2021 leverage unwind and the 2022 FTX collapse. Importantly, this metric tracks real losses taken on-chain, not […] The post $2

Institutions Are Losing Patience, and Bitcoin Developers Just Got a Warning2/15/2026

A sharp warning just landed in the Bitcoin governance debate. Nic Carter says large institutional holders could intervene if developers ignore quantum computing risks. His message sounds blunt. If developers “do nothing,” institutions may push to replace them

BTC miner IREN opens in the green, riding AI momentum to MSCI inclusion2/13/2026

IREN has announced that it will be added to the MSCI USA Index, a major benchmark that tracks the performance of large and mid-cap US stocks, by the end of February. The inclusion is expected to boost IREN’s visibility among institutional investors and index-tracking funds, which may support the company’s long-term price and capital-raising plans. […]

US federal judge sentences Praetorian’s CEO to 20 years over massive $200 million Bitcoin fraud2/13/2026

Ramil Ventura Palafox just got 20 years in federal prison. He ran a fake crypto company called Praetorian and scammed over 90,000 people across the world. A judge in Alexandria, Virginia, sentenced him after he got hit with wire fraud and money laundering charges. Ramil is 61 and holds passports from both the United States […]

Solo Miner Lands $213K Bitcoin Block2/13/2026

A solo Bitcoin (BTC) miner has mined block #936100, earning 3. 153 BTC (worth roughly $213K) in a rare jackpot moment. The block included the standard 3. 125 BTC subsidy plus around 0

Signal Summary
RangingConfidence: 38%
Low confidence — insufficient active signals
Bullish 3Neutral 10Bearish 1
Liq. Ratio: 68% Long liq.Large Trades: 51% sell sideIV Premium: 8.01%Taker Buy Ratio: 50.23%OI Change: -0.87%PCR: 0.7395Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: -15.2%HV Divergence: 9%
Mixed signals across dimensions. Market direction unclear, consider staying on the sidelines. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
Bullish
L/S Ratio
2.0266×1
CVD Trend
Rising×1
Fear & Greed
12×1
Bearish
Funding Rate
P93.8×1
AI vs Rules
AI
Neutral
Confidence: low
Rules Prediction
Neutral
Score: 0/4
AI and Rules agree
Mixed market signals with funding rate indicating bearishness, while L/S ratio, CVD trend, and Fear & Greed index suggest bullishness, leading to unclear direction.
Yesterday Review
⚠ Insufficient signals-0.30%
2026-02-15·Predicted: Neutral (0)RangingLow confidence — insufficient active signals
Low confidence — no directional call was made
Last 3 Days1W 1L (1 skipped)
Win Rate50%
Avg Accuracy60%
02-12
02-13
02-14
AINeutralN/A
Key Price Levels
BTC
Round Number
$69,000+0.2%
Week High
$69,754+1.3%
24h High
$70,111+1.8%
Current Price
$68,862
Round Number
$68,000-1.3%
24h Low
$67,250-2.3%
Options Max Pain
$66,000-4.2%
ETH
Round Number
$2,000+0.1%
Current Price
$1,997
Volume must exceed $11.0B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Market in extreme fear zone — historically a contrarian opportunity window
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 49.3% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureExtreme HighIV-HV: +8.01% · P81.3
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P93.8 · Long Liq %: 68.4%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 12 · FR P93.8
Who Dominates?ContestedBullish 3 : 1 Bearish · L/S 2.03
Capital Flowing In or Out?Inflow w/ DivergenceCVD Rising · Taker 50%
Volatility Risk?High Vol RiskIV 51.76 · HV 47.92 · P81
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?0.0059%+0.0083%
Rate Percentile93.8%
Basis?-0.0337%+0.0236%
Open Interest?3.09B
OI Change-0.87%
Long/Short Ratio?2.03+0.303
Top Trader Long %56.83%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation10.67M
Short Liquidation4.92M
Long 68%Short 32%
Large Buy8,769 trades / 2.21B
Large Sell8,823 trades / 2.27B
Options
IV Index?51.76%+2.36%
IV Range49.77% - 52.94%
HV 30D?47.92%
IV Premium8.01%
Put/Call Ratio?0.74-0.029
Max Pain?$66,000
PCR (Volume)0.78
Options OI432.46K
Net Delta29.82
IV Skew6.1300
Vol Regimeextreme_high (P81.3)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H52.17%4H52.18%24H52.17%7D52.97%30D47.92%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Rising
CVD Value3,237.05
CVD 4H7,109.61
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Sell Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?50.2%-1.3%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy61.0K
Large Taker Sell61.0K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth
+1.7%
10 Depth
+1.8%
20 Depth
+2.2%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl8.9
10 Lvl9.9
20 Lvl12.0
Orderbook Spread0.0002%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.000%
Max0.006%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield1.8%
US 2Y Yield3.47%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.67%
DXY118.2
VIX20.8
HY Spread2.92%
Net Liquidity5.71T
Net Liquidity Chg+0.04%
S&P 5006,836.17
M2 Supply$22692.2B

Updated at 16/02/2026, 22:10:22 UTC

On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1372.9B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.399,280
Hash Rate (EH/s)1233 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)-781.21 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.035 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0290

Updated at 17/02/2026, 00:10:43 UTC

7-Day Trend (4 days)
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Funding Trend
OI Trend
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.