CoinSig — 2026-02-18 Crypto Market Report

The market is in a ranging consolidation state, with a signal score of +0/3 and low confidence at 38%, indicating balanced but indecisive forces. The flow regime is mixed, with a taker buy ratio of 51.03% but the cumulative volume delta (CVD) trend turning falling, suggesting buying interest without strong net inflows. Price hovers around $66,423, down 1.56% from yesterday, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 8 (Extreme Fear), though the weekly trend shows it rose from 5 to 8, implying heightened panic without extreme selling. News-wise, BlackRock seeding an ETH staking ETF aligns with reports of rising institutional demand, but it hasn't translated into robust bullish momentum, as markets digest macro pressures like U.S. stock declines. The core contradiction lies in the extreme fear among retail (Fear & Greed Index 8) and the negative funding rate (-0.004%, at 30-day percentile P2.1) hinting at a potential bullish divergence, but positioning risks like the liquidation ratio (75% long) and low signal confidence (0.38) suppress rebound expectations. Extreme fear often signals oversold conditions, and negative funding indicates crowded shorts that could trigger a squeeze, yet the falling CVD trend and low order flow imbalance (OFI) value of 1.1868 show insufficient buying power to capitalize on this divergence. The volatility structure is extreme high (volatility percentile 85.7%), with the IV index at 52.06, above HV by 3.3 points and a premium of 6.77%, reflecting high uncertainty priced into options. The weekly IV trend is down (average 52.0), suggesting volatility is easing from peaks, but the term structure is flat (slope -0.0003), indicating consistent short- and long-term expectations. Open interest increased 2.1% to $3.14B, with a put/call ratio (PCR) of 0.7403 and net Delta of -11,124, showing bearish hedging in options, but low total OI ($0.00B) reduces structural risk. Key levels include support at $67,107 (week low), $65,826 (24h low), and $60,000 (max pain), with resistance at $67,000 (round number), $68,438 (24h high), and $69,754 (week high). A break above $67,000 with volume exceeding the weekly average of $10.7B could confirm a bullish reversal; conversely, failure to hold $65,826 support may trigger cascading liquidations due to high long liquidation占比. Monitor volume to gauge conviction. What to watch in the next 24 hours: 1. If BTC breaks below $65,826 on heavy volume, expect a fast move down as leveraged longs get liquidated. 2. If the Fear & Greed Index rebounds from 8 to above 10, coupled with a narrowing negative funding rate, it may signal sentiment recovery and short-covering opportunities. 3. Watch if ETH can break above $1,955 resistance due to BlackRock news; sustained institutional inflows could boost overall market sentiment.