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CoinSig — 2026-02-20 Crypto Market Report

Predictions2026-02-20
BTC/USDTRANGEAI Bullish
$67,979▲ 1.50%
L $66,408 — H $68,284
ETH$1,968+1.01%·BTC Dom. 56.47%
0/ ±5
Neutral
Fear & Greed
7Extreme Fear
24h Volume
$15.1B▲+55.47%
Bullish signals clustering. Strong short-term upward momentum. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
AIThe market is in a ranging state with a neutral signal score (+0/5), but flow regime is mixed, as price oscillates between $66,408 and $68,284, aligning with a flat weekly trend.
ARCHIVEDData period 2026-02-20 00:00–24:00 UTC·Generated at 2/21/2026, 12:30:03 AM (local time)
Daily Market Structure Report
The market is in a ranging state with a neutral signal score (+0/5), but flow regime is mixed, as price oscillates between $66,408 and $68,284, aligning with a flat weekly trend. Despite the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 7 (Extreme Fear), ETF daily inflows of $1.23B and a 5.7% increase in Open Interest indicate institutional accumulation, which connects to the structural news of CME Group launching 24/7 crypto trading on May 29, potentially boosting long-term liquidity. The core contradiction lies in the stark contrast between extreme retail fear and strong institutional inflows: the Fear & Greed Index fell from 9 to 7, signaling Extreme Fear, while ETF inflows hit $1.23B, Open Interest rose 5.7% to $3.15B, and the Long/Short Ratio of 2.0111 shows leveraged long dominance. This divergence suggests potential undervaluation, but low confidence of 0.38 and Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) biased sell (-1.5521) indicate ongoing short-term selling pressure. Volatility structure remains normal, with the IV Index declining from 53.0 to 51.97, IV-HV spread at 2.49, IV premium of 5.03% at the 76.9th percentile, and a flat weekly trend. Futures term structure is flat with a slope of 0.0003, PCR increased slightly from 0.7455 to 0.7569, and Max Pain at $55,000 well below current price, suggesting options markets aren't pricing a sharp downside risk, but positioning risk is balanced (long liquidation share at 25.8%). Key levels: support at $67,000 (round number) and $66,408 (24h low), resistance at $68,000 (round number) and $68,284 (24h high). A break above $68,284 with volume exceeding the weekly average of $10.4B could confirm bullish momentum; failure to hold $66,408 support may trigger cascading liquidations from $5.43M in long positions. Watch for the next 24 hours: 1. If ETF inflows sustain above $1B and price breaks $68,000, it may ease fear and drive a bounce; 2. If OFI remains sell-biased and price drops below $67,000, watch for a fast move toward $66,408 or lower; 3. Monitor the impact of CME news on sentiment—if IV rises above 55, it could signal a directional breakout. Yesterday's signal accuracy was 3/5, with low confidence, so exercise caution.
Important News Events
•
Ethereum forms Platform team for L1–L2 in 2026 roadmap2/19/2026

Ethereum Platform team, L1-L2 integration, Ethereum 2026 roadmap: EF says a new unit will align L1 and L2, cut latency, improve UX/security with dashboards.

•
Gwangju prosecutors office make unlikely recovery of unusual 320 BTC theft2/19/2026

The Gwangju District Prosecutor’s Office confirmed today that 320. 88 BTC, currently worth about $21. 5 million, was transferred back into the government’s custody wallet since February 17. They also mentioned that the funds were then moved to a secure wallet in a domestic exchange. The announcement by South Korean prosecutors is the latest chapter of a […]

•
CME Group Expands Into 24/7 Crypto Trading in Major Shift2/19/2026

CME Group will launch 24/7 cryptocurrency futures and options trading beginning May 29, marking a structural shift in how regulated crypto derivatives operate in the United States. The move will allow clients to trade Bitcoin and Ether futures contracts continuously, aligning regulated markets more closely with crypto’s always-on nature. com

•
Ethereum Prepares Massive 2026 Network Overhaul – What’s Coming?2/19/2026

The Ethereum Foundation has released its 2026 protocol priorities, outlining a major push to scale the network as it improves usability and security. The roadmap introduces three core tracks: scaling performance, improving user experience, and hardening the base layer. The update signals continued momentum behind faster transactions and a more resilient Ethereum

•
BlackRock Begins Seeding ETH Staking ETF2/17/2026

The TradFi asset management giant is currently aping ETH to seed its latest investment product.

•
Tech rout drags US stocks lower to kick off week, Bitcoin steadies around $67K2/17/2026

The S&P 500 is down 0. 5%, the Nasdaq Composite is off 0. 7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 188 points, or 0. 4%, as Wall Street opens the week in the red after another losing stretch. Bitcoin is holding steady around $67,213, hovering near $67K even as equities struggle.

•
Ethereum ICO Wallet Awakens After 10 Years – What Happened?2/16/2026

An Ethereum (ETH) ICO-era wallet just woke up after roughly 10. 6 years of inactivity and attempted to send 1 ETH to Gemini, according to on-chain trackers. The transaction failed due to low gas, but estimates suggest the wallet still holds about 1,430 ETH originally acquired for about $443

•
Bitcoin holders reassess value proposition as inflation eases2/14/2026

Bitcoin holders are rethinking their role as inflation cools.

Signal Summary
RangingConfidence: 38%
⚠ Low confidence — insufficient active signals
Bullish 5Neutral 11Bearish 0
Funding Rate: P75CVD Trend: FallingLarge Trades: 49% sell sideIV Premium: 5.03%Taker Buy Ratio: 49.01%PCR: 0.7569Price Momentum: FlatCVD Divergence: No divergenceATM Book Imbalance: 0.0%HV Divergence: 4%mvrv: 1.22
Bullish signals clustering. Strong short-term upward momentum. · Insufficient active signals. Low prediction confidence, use with caution.
▲ Bullish
L/S Ratio
2.0111×1
Liq. Ratio
26% Long liq.×1
Fear & Greed
7×1
OI Change
+5.73%×1
etf_flow
1230.4×1
AI vs Rules
AI
▲ Bullish
Confidence: medium
Rules Prediction
— Neutral
Score: 0/5
AI and Rules disagree
Multiple bullish signals such as ETF inflows, open interest increase, and extreme fear are present, but implied volatility premium and falling CVD trend indicate some resistance.
Yesterday Review
⚠ Insufficient signals+1.50%
2026-02-19·Predicted: Neutral (0)RangingLow confidence — insufficient active signals
Low confidence — no directional call was made
Last 7 Days1W 1L (5 skipped)
Win Rate50%
Avg Accuracy60%
02-12
02-13
02-14
02-15
02-16
02-17
02-18
AINeutral→❌ Missed
Key Price Levels
BTC
Round Number
$68,000+0.0%
24h High
$68,284+0.4%
Week High
$69,754+2.6%
Current Price
$67,979—
Round Number
$67,000-1.4%
24h Low
$66,408-2.3%
Options Max Pain
$55,000-19.1%
ETH
Round Number
$2,000+1.6%
Current Price
$1,968—
Round Number
$1,900-3.4%
Volume must exceed $10.4B (weekly avg) to confirm directional breakout
Key Insights
Market in extreme fear zone — historically a contrarian opportunity window
Market Structure Regimes
Flow RegimeMixedLarge Buy %: 50.8% · Divergence: —
Volatility StructureNormalIV-HV: +5.03% · P76.9
Positioning RiskBalancedFR P75 · Long Liq %: 25.8%
Market Status
Market Sentiment?Extreme FearF&G 7 · FR P75
Who Dominates?Bulls DominateBullish 5 : 0 Bearish · L/S 2.01
Capital Flowing In or Out?Inflow w/ DivergenceCVD Falling · Taker 49%
Volatility Risk?Elevated VolIV 51.97 · HV 49.48 · P77
Detailed Metrics
Derivatives
Contract Metrics
Funding Rate?0.0045%▼-0.0009%
Rate Percentile75%
Basis?-0.0464%▼-0.0013%
Open Interest?3.15B
OI Change+5.73%
Long/Short Ratio?2.01▼-0.202
Top Trader Long %57.26%
Liquidations & Large Trades
Long Liquidation5.43M
Short Liquidation15.62M
Long 26%Short 74%
Large Buy13,823 trades / 3.55B
Large Sell13,752 trades / 3.43B
Options
IV Index?51.97%▼-1.03%
IV Range51.29% - 52.82%
HV 30D?49.48%
IV Premium5.03%
Put/Call Ratio?0.76▲+0.011
Max Pain?$55,000
PCR (Volume)0.89
Options OI433.54K
Net Delta49.94
IV Skew11.0725
Vol Regimenormal (P76.9)
Term StructureFLAT
Multi-TF HV
1H51.48%4H51.49%24H51.48%7D51.88%30D49.48%
IV Term Structure
Microstructure
CVD & OFI
CVD Trend?Falling (Rising →)
CVD Value-1,327.63
CVD 4H6,248.78
Price-CVD DivergenceNo
Order Flow Imbalance?Sell Dominant
Taker Buy Ratio?49.0%▼-0.0%
Large Taker Buy / Large Taker Sell
Large Taker Buy95.4K
Large Taker Sell93.5K
Orderbook Imbalance?
5 Depth
+0.7%
10 Depth
+0.8%
20 Depth
+1.2%
Orderbook Depth
5 Lvl10.3
10 Lvl11.3
20 Lvl13.0
Orderbook Spread0.0002%
Cross-Exchange Spread
Avg0.001%▲+0.0001
Max0.012%
Volume LeaderBybit
Macro & On-chain
Macro Environment
US 10Y Yield1.79%
US 2Y Yield3.47%
Yield Curve (2s10s)-1.68%
DXY117.5
VIX20.2
HY Spread2.88%
Net Liquidity5.7T
Net Liquidity Chg+0.00%
S&P 5006,861.89
M2 Supply$22692.2B

Updated at 20/02/2026, 22:10:04 UTC

On-chain Data
BTC Market Cap$1356.8B
BTC Supply20M
BTC Active Addr.473,222
Hash Rate (EH/s)1021 EH/s
Exchange Netflow (BTC)-5722.40 BTC
ETH Gas (Gwei)0.045 Gwei
ETH Staked3M
ETH/BTC0.0289
BTC ETF
ETF Total AUM$80.4B
IBIT AUM$50.4B
Est. Daily Flow+$1.2B
BTC MVRV1.2218
BTC Realized Price$54,800
BTC NUPL0.1816
Stablecoin Supply
Total Stablecoins258.1B
USDT183.7B
USDC74.4B
BTC Momentum
From ATH-46.1%
30D Change-24.00%
200D Change-41.07%
Global Open Interest
BTC Global OI55.8B
ETH Global OI31.4B
Google Trends78/100

Updated at 21/02/2026, 00:10:56 UTC

7-Day Trend (7 days)
Price Trend→
Signal Trend▼
IV Trend→
Funding Trend▲
OI Trend▼
Price Trend
Signal Trend
IV Trend
Fear & Greed
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.